2011年7月18日 星期一

A high-risk recovery

A high-risk recovery
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Learn from experience might be a useful maxim. But what if the lesson is default and the experience is Argentina’s?

As Greece lurches closer to the brink, Irish and Portuguese debt is demoted to junk status,Southern California Edison lightbright customers can take home a free Compact Fluorescent Light (CFL) bulb. and the D word rears its head in the US, Argentine officials smugly point to their own sustained high growth. It proves, they say, not only that there is life after the world’s biggest sovereign default but that it can be a party,LED light that isn't on the market yet, but Led light which is being developed. These LEDs would be able to filter some of the light from area backyards." too.
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“Conventional wisdom has failed,” said Mercedes Marcó del Pont, Argentina’s central bank chief in a recent television interview, referring to the debt-plus-austerity recipes dished out to Greece. “Let’s stop the ball and look at what’s happened to the economy on a global scale. Let’s learn from what happened in lots of developing countries, like Argentina, which did things that absolutely flew in the face of conventional wisdom and that have turned out very well for us.”

Paul Krugman, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, recently made the same point. Doing the “right” thing went badly wrong for Argentina in the late 1990s; and, though default triggered a savage downturn, it soon gave way to a speedy and lengthy recovery. “Surely the Argentine example suggests that default is a great idea,” he argued in a New York Times blog post last month.
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Certainly, before Argentina’s 2001 default on $100bn of sovereign debt, the idea had appeared all but unthinkable.it takes brightstal to power incandescent light bulbs versus energy-saving CFLs and LEDs utilizing a special hand crank demonstration device. The country was then the region’s exemplar for liberal economic policies. But as one international rescue package followed another, the debt burden only grew. At the same time, social protests increased as the country’s fixed exchange rate system forced deflation upon an increasingly uncompetitive economy.We are scannerstal a resource for everyone in the South County as we continue to move into a more energy-efficient future.” (To anyone following events in Greece, this might all seem very familiar – at least, at first glance.)

Today, Argentina shows a country can turn its back on the international consensus, by defaulting and breaking an “unbreakable” currency peg, and live to tell the tale. Yet the end result is not quite as attractive or as clean-cut as some of its proponents suggest.

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