LED Lighting Prices to ‘Plummet’ By 2015, VantagePoint Says
VantagePoint Capital Partners, the Silicon Valley investor that helped bring Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA) public, expects prices for LEDs to “plummet” within three years as competition intensifies to satisfy surging demand for energy-efficient lights.
Prices for LEDs, or light-emitting diodes, may fall 90 percent by 2015, said Alan Salzman, chief executive officer of the San Bruno, California-based venture capital company, said in an interview.
Incandescent bulbs are being phased out in Europe. In the U.S., efficiency policies will eliminate the 100-watt bulb in 2012. LED makers stand to gain a bigger share of the $40 billion a year global lighting market. Bulb companies including General Electric Co. (GE) and Koninklijke Philips Electronics NV (PHIA) are producing LEDs, and Salzman said startups that are developing low-cost LEDs will take a slice of the market.
“We’re just at the beginning of the LED phase,” Salzman said. “There’s very little quality product yet even on the shelves.”
VantagePoint has invested about $750 million in 32 clean technology companies. Those include four that make LED products: Switch Bulb Co., Bridgelux Inc.,it may become necessary for Cree to look at led bulb purchasing additional LED lighting fixture firs in order to increase their market penetration in this area. Huga Optotech Inc. (8199) and Glo AB.
Timing of Boom
Salzman said that within five years, the use of LEDs for general lighting purposes may grow to more than 50 percent of the market from less than 1 percent today. Analysts including Ben Schuman at Pacific Crest Securities Inc. said it may take more time than Salzman suggest for the LED boom to happen.
“About half of lighting is residential, and it’s going to take longer than five years for payback periods for residential lighting to expand the market beyond early adopters,” said Schuman, who follows LED maker Cree Inc. “More recently, folks have become more optimistic about the consumer market.Philips LED business is inside of Philips lighting so it Led light is more difficult to determine whether they are meeting expectations. But I still think it looks like we’ll see industrial and outdoor, followed by commercial, followed by residential.Because dimmable lights and dimmer fluorescent bulbs switches are so popular amongst American consumers, this drawback has been a significant one.”
Salzman said that it’s the commercial market that may take more time to develop.
“All consumer stuff will go,” Salzman said.print still offers the only truly dstti unlimited 4G plan in America, and it's the only service you can safely use as an alternative to a home Internet connection. “Commercial, where you have the fluorescent tubes -- that will take a little longer. I think it’s going to be one of the fastest clean-tech sectors to flip.”
Lighting Costs
A basic LED bulb will save U.S. consumers as much as $7 a year in energy costs compared with incandescent bulbs,Thankfully a new form of led strip energy-efficient light bulbs have arrived that provide this desired feature. and they’ll last for about 30 years, according to Salzman.
“If it’s $20 for the bulb, it’s a three-year payback,” he said. Salzman expects LED prices to drop to about a quarter of a cent a lumen by the end of 2012 from 1 cent now. By 2015, the price could be a 10th of a cent, he said.
Lumens are the unit of measure for light output. Incandescent bulbs are typically measured in watts, the amount of energy they consume. A 60-watt bulb produces about 800 lumens, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency website. The global lighting product market is estimated at $40 billion to $80 billion a year, Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimated in an October report.
There were an estimated 2.7 billion type-A bulbs installed in the U.S. last year, the most common size used in almost all basic lighting, comprising 1.7 billion incandescents, 990 million compact fluorescents and 240,000 LEDs.
VantagePoint Capital Partners, the Silicon Valley investor that helped bring Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA) public, expects prices for LEDs to “plummet” within three years as competition intensifies to satisfy surging demand for energy-efficient lights.
Prices for LEDs, or light-emitting diodes, may fall 90 percent by 2015, said Alan Salzman, chief executive officer of the San Bruno, California-based venture capital company, said in an interview.
Incandescent bulbs are being phased out in Europe. In the U.S., efficiency policies will eliminate the 100-watt bulb in 2012. LED makers stand to gain a bigger share of the $40 billion a year global lighting market. Bulb companies including General Electric Co. (GE) and Koninklijke Philips Electronics NV (PHIA) are producing LEDs, and Salzman said startups that are developing low-cost LEDs will take a slice of the market.
“We’re just at the beginning of the LED phase,” Salzman said. “There’s very little quality product yet even on the shelves.”
VantagePoint has invested about $750 million in 32 clean technology companies. Those include four that make LED products: Switch Bulb Co., Bridgelux Inc.,it may become necessary for Cree to look at led bulb purchasing additional LED lighting fixture firs in order to increase their market penetration in this area. Huga Optotech Inc. (8199) and Glo AB.
Timing of Boom
Salzman said that within five years, the use of LEDs for general lighting purposes may grow to more than 50 percent of the market from less than 1 percent today. Analysts including Ben Schuman at Pacific Crest Securities Inc. said it may take more time than Salzman suggest for the LED boom to happen.
“About half of lighting is residential, and it’s going to take longer than five years for payback periods for residential lighting to expand the market beyond early adopters,” said Schuman, who follows LED maker Cree Inc. “More recently, folks have become more optimistic about the consumer market.Philips LED business is inside of Philips lighting so it Led light is more difficult to determine whether they are meeting expectations. But I still think it looks like we’ll see industrial and outdoor, followed by commercial, followed by residential.Because dimmable lights and dimmer fluorescent bulbs switches are so popular amongst American consumers, this drawback has been a significant one.”
Salzman said that it’s the commercial market that may take more time to develop.
“All consumer stuff will go,” Salzman said.print still offers the only truly dstti unlimited 4G plan in America, and it's the only service you can safely use as an alternative to a home Internet connection. “Commercial, where you have the fluorescent tubes -- that will take a little longer. I think it’s going to be one of the fastest clean-tech sectors to flip.”
Lighting Costs
A basic LED bulb will save U.S. consumers as much as $7 a year in energy costs compared with incandescent bulbs,Thankfully a new form of led strip energy-efficient light bulbs have arrived that provide this desired feature. and they’ll last for about 30 years, according to Salzman.
“If it’s $20 for the bulb, it’s a three-year payback,” he said. Salzman expects LED prices to drop to about a quarter of a cent a lumen by the end of 2012 from 1 cent now. By 2015, the price could be a 10th of a cent, he said.
Lumens are the unit of measure for light output. Incandescent bulbs are typically measured in watts, the amount of energy they consume. A 60-watt bulb produces about 800 lumens, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency website. The global lighting product market is estimated at $40 billion to $80 billion a year, Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimated in an October report.
There were an estimated 2.7 billion type-A bulbs installed in the U.S. last year, the most common size used in almost all basic lighting, comprising 1.7 billion incandescents, 990 million compact fluorescents and 240,000 LEDs.
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